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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232254 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
654 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend continues Sunday before rain returns Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700pm update...no major changes required. Refreshed overnight
temperatures and made minor tweaks to early morning cloud cover.

Previous discussion...

High pressure will keep conditions dry in nearly all locations
for the next 24 hours. Models keep tweaking the timing of
precipitation arrival to eastern Ohio, and at this point have
gone with a slight chance of showers west of I-77 through the
afternoon hours. Skies should remain crystal clear through the
evening, with increasing clouds the rest of the period.
Radiational cooling in the evening should allow overnight lows
to drop a couple degrees below normal, while southerly winds and
partly sunny skies should allow highs to climb 10 to 15 degrees
from Saturday`s highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will move from Missouri Sunday evening to Kentucky
by Monday morning and continue east to North Carolina by Monday
evening. Kept categorical pops across most, but not all areas,
with only likely pops along the I-80 corridor. Sunday night snow
could sink as far south as Pittsburgh, but no accumulation is
expected south of I-80 and only a dusting to the north. As
precipitation moves out Monday night, precipitation will likely
end as snow in the ridges, but again, accumulation is not
expected. Skies should already be mostly sunny by sunrise on
Tuesday, with decreasing clouds through the day. Sunday night`s
lows will be above normal as a result of the cloud cover, with
the rest of the period remaining below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure building across the Great Lakes region will
allow another period of dry weather Tuesday through Friday
before rain chances increase ahead of a weekend cold front. The
timing of the frontal passage is a bit uncertain, with the GFS
at least 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the long term, with temperatures above
normal throughout the period and warming into the low/mid 60s
by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR today under building high pressure. WNW winds will lessen
this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes.

.Outlook...
Restrictions appear likely Sunday night into Monday with the
passage of the next low pressure system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather