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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 090718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
318 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

The pattern of hot and humid weather with scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will persist through Friday. A cold front will
increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back
to seasonable levels.


Ridging will still dominate the weather scene today although with
weakening indicated over Ohio zones via longwave trough approach.
Chc/sct afternoon PoP numbers were thus limited to the western
perimeter of those counties and over the I 80 corridor where better
convergence is hinted. Isolated will suffice elsewhere.

The high temperature prog of 10 to 13 degrees above the average was
little-altered; however, those readings in conjunction with lower
70s dewpoints will drive heat index values to near the 100 degree
mark for lowland areas generally along and south of the PA turnpike.
Heat Advisory was thus maintained.


Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support
higher precip. probs on Friday in continued warmth and humidity with
further escalation into Saturday as per full, but relatively weak
cold-frontal assault. Upper troughing with clouds and rain chance
will keep temperature around the calculated-normals for the weekend.


Ern CONUS upr troughing wl maintain seasonable temperature with
convective weather through Monday. Ridging is indicated thereafter
in response to troughing over the nwrn CONUS/wrn Canada. Precip.
probs will thus drop and temperature will rise with 90s expected
once again by mid week.


High pres wl maintain genl VFR with exception for peri-dawn fog at
termimals near rivers, and for isold, to sct aftn convection, signal
for which is too weak to pinpoint with confidence. For now, have
focused a "vicinity" mention from Pit north and west as per ridge
weakening and convergence indications.

Restrictions are likely Friday night and Saturday with the advn and
passage of a cdfnt.


Based on the 30-year climatological average, here is the "normal"
number of 90-degree days per year at each of the local climatic

Pittsburgh: 6.9 days
Morgantown: 8.0 days
Wheeling: 5.0 days
Zanesville: 10.0 days
Dubois: 1.0 day

90+F temperatures are still forecast through Friday. Here is a
summary of the most-recent 90+F stretches at each site:

Pittsburgh (7/3-7/10/2020): prior 8-day stretch ended 8/20/1995
Morgantown (7/2-7/10/2020): prior 9-day stretch ended 8/4/1995
Wheeling (7/4-7/10/2020): prior 7-day stretch ended 7/27/2016
Zanesville (7/4-7/10/2020): prior 7-day stretch ended 7/8/2012
Dubois (7/5-7/10/2020): would be longest 90F stretch at DUJ.

Dubois most recently had a 5-day stretch of 90F days ending
7/23/2011. Dubois also is the site with the greatest potential
variability in the forecast maximum during this forecast period, and
therefore the most likely not to reach 90F on any given day.


OH...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for
PA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for
WV...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for



Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather