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Select Your Area NWS Weather Forecast Office
NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 090137 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
937 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase tonight through
part of Wednesday with the approach and passage of a slow moving
cold front. By the end of the week, cooler and drier air set in
with high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update to speed up arrival of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
an approaching shortwave and associated cold front. These storms
continue to gradually weaken as they move across areas with
less available instability. Satellite imagery shows a general
warming of cloud tops, and recent radar VIL loops also indicate
a gradual weakening trend. Still, these showers/storms should
affect areas mainly N of PIT this evening, and elsewhere N of I
70 overnight as the front moves slowly sewd. Expect the coverage
to also diminish and become more scattered through the night.

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue, with lows
around 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The stagnant weather pattern will finally shows signs of breaking on
Tuesday.  As a a series of shortwave troughs cross the Great Lakes,
a surface cold front will make slow southward progress Tuesday and
Wednesday. Coverage of showers and storms will increase with the
boundary, given some modest lift supported by an upper jet crossing
to our north. The main threat still appears to be localized heavy
rainfall/flash flooding, as short periods of training storms are
possible with cloud-layer wind nearly paralleling the low-level jet.
Although parameters like anomalously high PWAT and decent warm cloud
depths continue to point to efficient rainfall, the lack of strong
lift and weak instability progs indicated that heavy rain coverage
may not be too high. Will need to continue to watch for targeted
flood watch opportunities, but the chance of widespread issues looks
low.

As the front makes its southward progress, cooler and drier air will
filter in from the north with time, which will bring relief from the
humidity and suppress rain chances to the south. The front is
currently expected to largely exit the area on Wednesday,
although some uncertainty remains with timing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A more potent shortwave/surface cold front combination are currently
slated for Thursday/Thursday night.  Scattered showers and storms
will accompany the boundary. Although the upper wave will provide an
increase in shear, model progs of instability indicate that CAPE may
be insufficient for much of a severe threat.

Thereafter, we currently still have good confidence that building
surface high pressure will provide a cooler and drier air mass for
Friday into early next week.  A couple of the operational model runs
show some baggy troughing that could indicate a chance of diurnal
showers come Sunday or Monday, but will keep PoPs mainly in the
slight chance range for now as suggested by the NBM. Temperatures
will be below normal Friday and Saturday, but may recover
towards climatology by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected into the overnight hours at most ports. The
exception will be at FKL where showers and storms are possible
late this evening.

By early tomorrow morning, restrictions are likely again with an
approaching cold front, diurnal cooling, and continued surface
moisture. IFR was noted. Showers will become more likely as
tomorrow morning progresses on and the cold front approaches the
region from the NW.

.Outlook...
Shower chances and restrictions are likely again Thursday with
two passing cold fronts.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather