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Select Your Area NWS Weather Forecast Office
NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192356
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
656 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will continue tonight with crossing low pressure.
Much colder weather is expected behind the low Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Reconfigured the winter weather headlines based on current
observations and near term models. Widespread precipitation
should continue this evening as low pressure tracks from the TN
Valley to the Upper OH Valley region. Warmer air aloft on the
ern side of the low has resulted in rain falling over much of
the area S of Route 422. The PA, WV and MD ridges have seen
rain, snow and freezing rain, while areas N of Route 422 have
been mainly snow. This precip patter matches with the analyzed
and model progged 1300 dm thickness line. As the warm air
advects N, some areas N of PIT could see a period of freezing
rain also with sfc temps at or below freezing.

The low is expected to track to the Mid Atlantic region
overnight, with winds backing to the NW. Strong cold advection
on the wrn side of the low should result in all areas seeing a
changeover to snow. Expect the highest snow totals N of Route
422 where snow should be the most persistent, with lesser
amounts to the south. Wind gusts should also increase overnight
as the pressure gradient tightens on the wrn side of the
departing low. Temperatures should be in the mid teens to mid
20s by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread snow will be winding down on Sunday as the system
departs. Although the strong cold advection and NW component of
the wind suggest upslope/lake-enhanced snow showers, rapidly
decreasing moisture and inversion heights will keep coverage and
intensity lower. Still, a downwind plume off of Lake Huron is
possible, leading to snow shower chances in southeast Ohio, with
ridge coverage expected as well. Have an inch or less for this
activity currently, although it may be locally higher in spots.

Temperatures will continue to fall through Sunday and
Sunday night, bottoming out in the single digits, with some
below-zero readings on the ridges. Continued gusty wind will
allow for low wind chills, below -15 in some locations. Wind
chill headlines will likely be needed. Scattered snow showers
will also continue in the northwest flow pattern.

Mid-level troughing will linger into Monday with continued cold
temperatures, and at least isolated snow showers. Winds will
relax as high pressure builds in and the pressure gradient
decreases. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be similar to
Monday, but wind chill values will not be as brutal. The
approaching high will also cut off snow showers by Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday will feature mostly dry weather and high temperatures
moderating closer to climatology. A southwesterly flow will
keep temperatures slightly about average come Wednesday.
Precipitation will return with a midweek weather system. Expected
rain showers will mix with and change over to snow as a cold
front moves in Wednesday evening. Cold air will set in for the
majority of the East Coast as a deep upper level trough lingers
the remainder of the week and weekend. There is a chance for
lake enhanced snow Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complicated mix of rain and snow will continue across the
terminals tonight. Impacts from snow continue to be greatest
across FKL and DUJ which have remained north of the transition
zone. Have closely followed latest hires guidance with
transitioning remaining sites to snow... first at ZZV around
midnight and eastward to MGW/LBE through 7AM.

Ceilings will remain mostly IFR with intermittent MVFR across
all sites overnight save for DUJ and FKL where heavier snow is
expected to drop visibilities to LIFR. Snow will exit the area
Sunday morning from west to east after sunrise, with a return to
VFR at most sites during the afternoon.

Gusty NE to NW wind shift anticipated overnight as the low
moves east. Wind will gust to at most 30kts through the period.

.Outlook...
Cig restrictions and gusty winds are expected to continue
through Sun in cold NW flow. Restrictions are likely again with
a Tue night/Wed cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for MDZ001.
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ039>041-048-
     057.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for OHZ049-050-058-059-068-069.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020-022-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for PAZ074-076.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather