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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 131949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
249 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Dry conditions are expected through early next week amid building high


Sfc high pressure will vacate ewd this afternoon as flow aloft
becomes zonal in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the
nrn Plains.

Although temperature has been slower to increase today owing to the
cold start to the day, increasing cloud cover and modest warm-air
advection in advance of the approaching trough will help offset
typical diurnal cooling tonight. Temperature is expected to hover
quasi-steady in the mid-upper 20s overnight, with cloud coverage
variability leading to pockets of cooler values by morning.


The Plains trough will approach and cross the Upper OH Valley Thu
afternoon through early Friday, with mainly an increase in clouds
expected as moisture will be lacking in advance of the wave. Moisture
will remain well to the north of I-80, so PoPs are not justified.

A weak frontal boundary will advance swd Fri in association with the
passage of this trough, but a dearth of moisture will preclude any
concern for precipitation.

Some moderation in temperature is expected Thu and Fri amid warm
advection and sun. Maxima easily will reach mid-upper 30s (possibly
even lower 40s in some areas), though readings should still average
around 10F below typical values.


Ridging aloft and vacating sfc high pressure will signal continued
dry conditions thru the weekend. Temperature on Sat will remain
several degrees below seasonal levels.

A shift in the mid-level flow pattern in the wake of the ridging and
downstream of a digging Plains trough suggests that warm-air
advection and swly flow aloft could develop for the Ohio Valley early
next week.

The net effects of this shift will be an increase in temperature
toward closer to seasonal range and the possibility of increasing
moisture by early next week.


General VFR through the forecast period as the region remains under
the influence of sfc high pressure and shortwave ridging.

Heating and residual near-sfc moisture will lead to brief cu this
aftn mainly north/east of KPIT. Increased subsidence will erode this
deck by the evening. Mid- and high-level clouds will increase
through the day due to warm advection aloft ahead of an incoming
shortwave trough.

Restrictions may be possible with the passage of a shortwave trough
Thursday night.


Several of our climate sites have tied or broken record low
temperatures this morning, November 13th.

Site           Record value         Previous Record
----           ------------         ---------------
Pitt Intnl          12                 13 (1911)
DuBois              14                 14 (1986)
Morgantown          13                 15 (1920,1933,1986)
New Philadelphia    12                 18 (1986)






Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather