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Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 262322
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward 
Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today.  
However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days 
before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or 
while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday 
through Friday.  Interests in the Windward Islands and along the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this 
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for 
portions of these areas on Monday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low 
pressure.  Development of this system is expected to be slow to 
occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern 
Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262320
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers are associated with a tropical wave located a 
few hundred miles offshore the coasts of Guatemala and southern 
Mexico.  Environmental conditions could support some gradual 
development of this disturbance during the next several days while 
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Celia (EP3/EP032022)
    ...CELIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 the center of Celia was located near 20.0, -115.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Celia

  • Tropical Storm Celia Public Advisory Number 42
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022 ...CELIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 115.0W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Advisory Number 42
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 0300 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.0W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.0W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion Number 42
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Unexpectedly, the satellite presentation of Celia has improved this evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed a distinct mid-level eye with a ring of deep convection surrounding the center of the cyclone. Infrared cloud top temperatures near and over the center have cooled during the past several hours, and overall the cloud pattern appears more organized than earlier today. The initial intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the objective SATCON estimate (46 kt) and consensus T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Celia is still moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt, as it is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends over the eastern North Pacific. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days until Celia dissipates. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Despite the recent uptick in intensity, Celia is still expected to weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Model-simulated satellite imagery suggests that Celia will struggle to maintain deep organized convection by Tuesday, and so the NHC forecast still calls for the cyclone to become post-tropical in 36 h. Then, the system will continue weakening as it gradually spins down over sub-22 deg C waters. By late Thursday, the remnant low is forecast to open into a trough and dissipate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 0300 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Celia Graphics
    Tropical Storm Celia 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 02:35:09 GMT

    Tropical Storm Celia 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 02:35:10 GMT ]]>