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Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


994 
ABNT20 KNHC 091131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight in 
association with an area of low pressure located about 60 miles east 
of Wilmington, North Carolina.  The thunderstorm activity is 
currently located well east and northeast of the low's center, but 
only a small increase in organization or a reformation of the 
center closer to the thunderstorm activity could result in the 
formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today or 
tonight.  The low is expected to move northeastward or 
north-northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina 
Outer Banks later today and then along the mid-Atlantic coast 
tonight through Friday night. 

Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce 
locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across 
portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and 
southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also 
possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along 
the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and 
Saturday.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system and refer to products from your local National Weather 
Service office.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091124
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
could form early next week while the system moves westward well 
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
    ...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 16.8, -109.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina

  • Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090830 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.4W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Cristina could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt. Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090830 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 8 24(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 9(10) 43(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 57(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
    Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 08:32:22 GMT

    Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT ]]>