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Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical Sea Temperatures

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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 130558
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and 
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Slow development is possible over the next several days while the 
broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form 
in this area by Thursday or Friday.  Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America 
and southern Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130548
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Carlos, located more than 1200 miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association 
with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles 
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear only marginally conducive for additional development over the 
next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to 
interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its north, 
and formation of a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Regardless 
of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 the center of Carlos was located near 11.9, -124.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Carlos

  • Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 124.5W ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 124.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually slow down with a turn to the west-southwest over the next 24 to 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130253 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130313 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Corrected humidity value in third paragraph. Satellite imagery indicates improved organization this evening as a cold convective burst has expanded over the estimated low-level circulation center. A 2032 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicated that underneath this convective burst was also improved convective banding, especially over the southern semicircle. The latest round of Dvorak satellite estimates were T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique value was also T2.5/35 kt. Favoring the higher intensity estimates, and assuming some intensification has occurred from the earlier scatterometer passes, Tropical Depression Three-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlos with an advisory intensity of 35 kt. Carlos appears to be gradually turning leftward and slowing down this evening, with the most recent estimated motion at 270/06 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Carlos is forecast to gradually weaken, shift northward, and then be replaced by a deep-layer trough that will essentially shut down the steering currents near the cyclone after 24 h. Between 36 to 48 h the motion of Carlos is likely to slow to a crawl, generally to the west-southwest. By 72 h, another mid-to-upper level trough digging in from the northwest will finally induce some northerly steering, helping Carlos to gradually accelerate to the north. The latest track forecast is a bit west of the previous NHC forecast owing to the current motion, but remains very close to the HFIP corrected consensus and TCVE track consensus. It should be noted that there remains large spread in the guidance on how quickly Carlos slows down, with the latest GFS forecast slowing down the cyclone almost immediately, while the CMC and ECMWF runs show a much faster track to the west-southwest. The intensity forecast is tricky due to both the small size of the tropical cyclone and also the less than optimal environment surrounding the system. While deep-layer vertical wind shear is only expected to be low to moderate over the next 72 h, mid-level shear out of the north to northwest is a bit higher (15-25 kt) and could occasionally import very dry mid-level air from that direction. In fact, ECMWF-SHIPS mid-level humidity values gradually decrease to under 50 percent in the next 36 h. In addition, the very slow motion of Carlos expected between 24-72 h could potentially upwell cooler sea-surface temperatures than the current 27-28 C values along the forecast track. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast is fairly conservative, forecasting a peak intensity of 45 kt between 24-60 h, which is close to the HFIP corrected consensus and peak intensity of the most recent HWRF run. Thereafter, as the storm begins to gain latitude, increasingly dry, stable air in addition to decreasing sea surface temperatures should lead to gradual weakening beyond 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130254 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
    Tropical Storm Carlos 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 02:57:14 GMT

    Tropical Storm Carlos 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 03:22:32 GMT ]]>